Week 6: Forecasting and Capacity Planning
An important part of planning within a business organization is making accurate forecasts regarding future demands for products or services. This week, you learn how organizations develop forecasts and plan their facilities. Forecasting and facilities planning are very important for managers in any size and type of organization, to make decisions on inventory management, marketing, hiring, and budgeting, typically relying on the forecasting data.
Consider what you know about forecasting. Recall a time you tried to determine how a future event would go. How accurate was your prediction? What affected the accuracy of the outcome, either positively or negatively?
- Analyze aggregate planning strategies
- Evaluate variables for modifying supply
- Analyze importance of supply chain and operations management theories, concepts, and strategies for personal professional development
- Apply supply chain and operations management concepts, theories, and practices
Note: To access this week’s required library resources, please click on the link to the Course Readings List, found in the Course Materials section of your Syllabus.
Schroeder, R. G., Goldstein, S. M., & Rungusanatham, M. J. (2018). Operations management in the supply chain: Decisions and cases (7th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
- Chapter 10, “Forecasting” (pp. 186-210)This chapter introduces you to a number of forecasting models that deal with long-range planning. These models have been developed to provide a more scientific approach to the forecasting process. Both qualitative and quantitative models of forecasting are covered in this chapter, along with the advantages and recommended use of each forecasting model. Focus on the definitions provided throughout the chapter. Review and think about the examples and anecdotes provided in the chapters that illustrate the major ideas being conveyed. Consider the recommended use of each of the forecasting models. Ask yourself what factors need to be considered when selecting which forecasting model to use.
- Chapter 11, “Capacity Planning” (pp. 216-237)Chapter 11 continues the discussion on decision-making for the future needs of an organization. This chapter describes facilities planning and facilities strategy. Aggregate planning is also discussed, along with the options and strategies for performing aggregate planning. Finally, level and chase strategies for meeting fluctuating demands in the market are presented. Focus on the definitions provided throughout the chapter. Review and think about the examples and anecdotes provided in the chapters that illustrate the major ideas being conveyed. Consider the options and strategies that are presented for performing aggregate planning. In particular, ask yourself how the strategy used affects costing decisions.
Schroeder, R. G., Goldstein, S. M., & Rungtusanatham, M. J. (2018). Operations management in the supply chain (7th ed.). Retrieved from http://highered.mheducation.com/sites/0077835433/student_view0/index.html
Discussion: Forecasting and Aggregate Planning
Throughout this course, you have learned about the various aspects of operations management. In this final week, the focus has been on two additional strategies, forecasting and aggregate planning. With as quickly as today’s marketplace changes, managers need to be able to maximize the use of available resources as well as adjust strategies quickly to meet the market demands. Two basic production strategies, level strategy and chase strategy, help managers transform forecasts or estimates of market demand into a production plan for efficiently and effectively meeting that demand.
Consider what you have learned about the use of aggregate planning. In the course text, review the list of variables that can be used in aggregate planning to modify the supply.
To prepare for this Discussion, consider the following:
One option for managing costs associated with changes in demand for a product or service is hiring additional personnel during periods of increasing demand and conducting layoffs during lower-demand periods.
By Day 3
Post a 250- to 300-word statement that addresses the following:
- What are the advantages and disadvantages of using the option of hiring additional personnel during periods of increasing demand and conducting layoffs during lower-demand periods for managing operating costs?
Read a selection of your colleagues’ postings.
By Day 6
Respond to two or more of your colleagues’ postings in one or more of the following ways:
- Ask a probing question.
- Share an insight from having read your colleague’s posting.
- Offer and support an opinion.
- Make a suggestion.
- Expand on your colleague’s posting.
Return to this Discussion in a few days to read the responses to your initial posting. Note what you learned and the insights you gained as a result of the comments your colleagues made.
Note: Be sure to support your work with specific reference citations from the Learning Resources and any additional sources you consulted. All references must be cited in APA format in an alphabetized list of references at the end of your summary post.
Submission and Grading Information
Post by Day 3 and Respond by Day 6
Assignment: Management Style
To be successful leaders in the global business world of the 21st century, managers must put into place processes and procedures that will ensure that their company is both cost-effective and efficient. Such decisions allow them to increase the productivity and competitiveness of their organizations. Managers must balance the pressures to improve both production and delivery—with the relative costs and profit margins related to each.
With this in mind, reflect on the theories, concepts, and strategies presented in this course.
By Day 7
Submit a 250-word paper that summarizes the following reflections:
- Describe how your attitude about business management has been impacted by the information you gained in this course.
- Consider what you have learned in this course about management theories, concepts, and strategies. Identify the knowledge and insights you think will be most useful in developing your own management style. Be specific.
Ensure that your paper is formatted per APA guidelines and include a “References” list at the end of your paper. Keep track of all references and quotes, and cite them following APA guidelines.
Submission and Grading Information
To submit your completed Assignment for review and grading, do the following:
- Please save your Assignment using the naming convention “WK6Assgn+last name+first initial.(extension)” as the name.
- Click the Week 6 Assignment Rubric to review the Grading Criteria for the Assignment.
- Click the Week 6 Assignment link. You will also be able to “View Rubric” for grading criteria from this area.
- Next, from the Attach File area, click on the Browse My Computer button. Find the document you saved as “WK6Assgn+last name+first initial.(extension)” and click Open.
- If applicable: From the Plagiarism Tools area, click the checkbox for I agree to submit my paper(s) to the Global Reference Database.
- Click on the Submit button to complete your submission.
Check Your Assignment Draft for Authenticity
Submit Your Assignment by Day 7
Welcome to the Week 6 Final Exam.
You will have 2.5 hours (150 minutes) to complete the Exam. It is made up of 25 multiple-choice questions, and is worth 100 points. It covers Chapters 8–12 of the course text.
By Day 7
Complete the exam of this week.
Submission and Grading Information
Submit Your Exam by Day 7
Week in Review
In this final week you analyzed aggregate planning strategies and evaluated variables for modifying supply. You also analyzed the importance of supply chain and operations management theories and concepts for personal professional development.
Congratulations! After you have finished all of the assignments for this week, you have completed the course. Please submit your Course Evaluation by Day 7.